Status: idea (2026-10-03). Needs only built data (time-to-degree.md, prices, and history); the family version waits for Net Price Estimator: What This Family Would Pay. Part of ideas.
Question it answers
What does the degree cost here, not one year of it? Every price on every site is a one-year figure, and every family multiplies it by four. At most colleges fewer than half of first-time students finish in four years; a fifth year costs as much as the first, and some leave with debt and no degree. Neither CollegeIQ nor College Kickstart shows anything beyond one year.
Why it's fresh
Edmunds' True Cost to Own turned a sticker price into a five-year total with stated assumptions and called itself "a comparative tool, not a predictive tool". The college version uses figures the site already has: the share of a class that earned an award within 4, 6 and 8 years (OM, built with wave 2), the college's own ten-year price trend (history), and the median debt of those who left. It is comparative: every college's figure uses the same rules, so the ordering is fair even where the dollars are not a quote.
Measures
Derived fields registered in lib/fields.ts and computed at sync, so every figure is cited like any other.
| Field | Formula | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
cost.to_degree.four_years |
Average paid (all students) for years 1 to 4, each projected with the college's own ten-year price trend, capped at the national rate | "The four-year plan" |
cost.to_degree.typical |
The same price series over the typical years to a degree: 4 for the share finishing by year 4, 6 for the share finishing in years 5 to 6, 8 for years 7 to 8, weighted and divided by the share finishing by year 8 | "What finishing here typically costs" |
cost.to_degree.not_finishing_share |
1 − the 8-year award share | "Left without a degree within 8 years" (includes students who transferred and finished elsewhere) |
cost.to_degree.left_with_debt |
College Scorecard's median debt of students who withdrew (WDRAW_DEBT_MDN) |
"Median debt of those who left" (not in the sync today, checked 2026-10-03: one Scorecard field to add) |
Counting years 5 and 6 as 6, and 7 and 8 as 8, overstates slightly and is stated as the assumption. The first-time, full-time cohort is the headline because it matches the price's cohort; the transfer-in and part-time cohorts OM also reports are in the popover.
Display
- Cost page: a "Cost to a degree" block with three rows: the four-year plan; typical here ("62% finish in four years, 83% by six"); and "17% leave without a degree within eight years; median debt among those who withdrew $9,500". A stacked bar: four years, then the extra years in a lighter tint.
- Compare: a row. Explore: a sort and a table column, "cost to a degree (typical)".
- Guide: "Four years means four" (Guides: Common Questions Answered as Living Lists).
- Home: a fact once the national median is computed: "At the median college, the typical degree costs 1.3× the four-year plan" (the number to be measured, not assumed).
- Family version (Pro, in the estimator): the family's price range replaces average paid; the "getting home" line from Near and Far: The Map, Distance From Home, and the Cost of Getting There (IPEDS HD + Census) is added; the four-year projection gains a row "if it takes the typical time here".
- Glossary:
cost-to-a-degree,time-to-degree.
Caveats shown every time
Comparative, not predictive. The OM shares describe a class that entered about eight years ago; the prices are today's. A student who transfers and finishes elsewhere counts as not finishing here. A student's own time to a degree depends on credits brought in, major changes, and money, none of which the figure knows.
Tier
Free on profiles, Compare, and Explore. The family version with Pro.
Complexity
Small: arithmetic on fields the site already has, a cost block, a Compare row, and an Explore sort.
Open questions
- The median debt of students who withdrew is one Scorecard field to add to the sync (loans-and-repayment.md is where it belongs); the block can ship without that line and gain it later.
- Should the typical figure use the all-students average paid or the aided-students net price? Average paid, to match the rest of the Cost page; the family version uses the family's own range anyway.