Study 6
The Pell graduation gap
Do students with Pell Grants graduate at the same rate as classmates who had neither a Pell Grant nor a subsidized loan, and has the gap changed?
Pell recipients'
52%53%
Entered fall 2010 → entered fall 2018 · median college
Gap at the median college,
+8.9 pts+11.2 pts
Entered fall 2010 → entered fall 2018 · median college
Colleges where the gap is 10+ points
46%55%
Entered fall 2010 → entered fall 2018 · share of colleges
The national picture
The median graduation rate for Pell Grant recipients and for , by , since entered fall 2010, with the gap shaded between them. The overall rate (all students) is a thin dashed line for context. Median college, not weighted by size.
Counting students instead of colleges: summing graduates over cohorts (not averaging each college equally), Pell recipients graduated at 54% and students with neither a Pell Grant nor a subsidized loan at 73% for the entered fall 2018, a gap of +19.4 pts (47% and 68%, a gap of +21.1 pts, for the entered fall 2010). Large universities enroll most students, so the student-weighted gap reads differently from the median college's.
Where it changed
The same shaded pair for each group, on one scale. Switch to Students to weight by each group's cohort sizes instead of counting every college once.
Median graduation rate, Pell recipients (solid) and students with neither a Pell Grant nor a subsidized loan (dashed), by entering class, entered fall 2010 to entered fall 2018. Numbers: entered fall 2010 → entered fall 2018.
- Pell recipients
- Neither Pell nor a loan
Northeast
312 colleges
Pell 61% → 59% · Gap +7.2 pts → +7.7 pts
Southeast
266 colleges
Pell 45% → 47% · Gap +9.9 pts → +12.2 pts
Midwest
289 colleges
Pell 50% → 52% · Gap +13.1 pts → +14.9 pts
Southwest
81 colleges
Pell 40% → 45% · Gap +10.9 pts → +10.6 pts
West
139 colleges
Pell 56% → 55% · Gap +6.2 pts → +8.2 pts
Territories
16 colleges
Needs 30 or more
Where the gap is widest
Share of colleges in each group where the gap is 10 or more points, entered fall 2010 and entered fall 2018.
- Northeast
35% → 40%
- Southeast
50% → 61%
- Midwest
63% → 75%
- Southwest
57% → 54%
- West
24% → 39%
- Public
46% → 56%
- Private nonprofit
46% → 55%
- Under 2,000 undergrads
53% → 64%
- 2,000–9,999
45% → 54%
- 10,000+
35% → 44%
- Under 25% admitted
9% → 4%
- 25–59% admitted
30% → 36%
- 60% or more
51% → 64%
- City
44% → 51%
- Suburb
42% → 49%
- Town
54% → 72%
- Rural
46% → 56%
- R1 universities
34% → 42%
- R2 universities
45% → 50%
- Research college or university
41% → 47%
- Other colleges
50% → 62%
- D-I FBS
48% → 59%
- D-I FCS
45% → 55%
- D-I, no football
41% → 43%
- D-II
53% → 67%
- D-III
42% → 50%
- NAIA or none
44% → 53%
Eight years, everyone
A different measure: the survey counts every entering student, including part-time and transfer students, not just first-time, full-time students followed for six years. For the entered fall 2016 class — the newest this survey covers — the share who earned a credential within 8 years, Pell Grant recipients against students without one.
- All colleges
55% · 63% students without a Pell Grant · 1,638 colleges
- Public
54% · 60% students without a Pell Grant · 576 colleges
- Private nonprofit
57% · 65% students without a Pell Grant · 975 colleges
- For-profit
36% · 46% students without a Pell Grant · 87 colleges
What it means
Across 1,103 colleges, the gap between students with neither a Pell Grant nor a subsidized loan and Pell recipients at the median college rose from +8.9 pts for the entered fall 2010 to +11.2 pts for the entered fall 2018, even though Pell recipients' own graduation rate held steady only barely, from 52% to 53%: the gap widened mainly because students with neither a Pell Grant nor a subsidized loan graduated more often, 62% to 66%. The exception is the most selective colleges, where the gap narrowed, from +4.1 pts to +2.8 pts: it was already small.
Breakdowns show where the gap changed, not why: a college's mix of programs, aid, and student support all play a part.
How this was measured
- Which colleges. Colleges reporting both groups' graduation rates, with at least 50 students in both the Pell and "neither" groups, in both entering classes: 1,103 colleges in entered fall 2010 and entered fall 2018. It's a , so colleges entering or leaving the data don't look like change.
- Groups. Colleges are grouped by . A group needs 30 or more colleges in the panel; smaller ones show .
- means students with neither a Pell Grant nor a subsidized loan — IPEDS's own comparison group. Students with a subsidized loan but no Pell Grant are in neither group.
- The 50-student floor. A college needs at least 50 students in BOTH groups, in BOTH entering classes, to join the panel — on top of the federal rule that already hides any group's own rate under 30 students.
- . A rate for the "entered fall 2018" class describes students who started college then and is measured six years later; it never means the year it was published.
- Yearly lines run from entered fall 2010 over the panel colleges reporting each entering class; a year is left out of a line when under 90% of its colleges reported.
- The universe. The site's four-year colleges, not all of U.S. higher education. Breakdowns show where a change happened, not why.
Sources:IPEDS Graduation Rates survey (Pell Grant and subsidized loan recipients), classes entering fall 2010 to fall 2018;College Scorecard (graduation by entering class), classes entering fall 2010 to fall 2018;IPEDS Outcome Measures survey, classes entering fall 2010 to fall 2016About the data(built 2026-10-12; CPI retrieved 2026-10-12)