Study 7
Where the students went
Over ten years, where did undergraduates go: to bigger colleges, to certain states, to public or private colleges, to cheaper or pricier ones? And did the pandemic speed the shifts up, or are they reversing?
Campus-based at colleges with 20,000+ students
31%35%
Fall 2014 → fall 2024 · share of students
At research universities (R1)
41%46%
Fall 2014 → fall 2024 · share of students
Up in 9 of 10 falls, pandemic included.
The national picture
Every college with 300 or more undergraduates in both fall 2014 and fall 2024, by kind, as a share of all their students. The rest of this page is campus-based colleges only: an college's enrollment can grow without anyone moving anywhere, and a merger moves students between records; either would swamp the picture.
- Campus-based public and private nonprofit1,406 colleges · 90.3% → 88.4% of students
- Online-first public and nonprofit67 colleges · 4.9% → 6.7% of students
- For-profit37 colleges · 2.8% → 2.6% of students
- Merged or split campuses27 colleges · 2.1% → 2.3% of students
Online-first public and nonprofit colleges went from 4.9% to 6.7% of these students (+36% in students), while campus-based colleges went from 90.3% to 88.4% (−3.5%).
Where it changed
Each group's share of all 1,406 campus-based colleges' undergraduates, then and now, on one scale: the view. For how many colleges shrank or grew, see Shrinking colleges.
Each group's share of all campus-based undergraduates, fall 2014 and fall 2024. Size and selectivity as of fall 2014.
- Fall 2014
- Fall 2024
Under 2,000 undergrads
590 colleges
9.2% → 8.4% (−0.8 pts) · students −12%
2,000–9,999
599 colleges
35.5% → 32.5% (−3.1 pts) · students −12%
10,000–19,999
131 colleges
24.6% → 24.2% (−0.3 pts) · students −5%
20,000+
86 colleges
30.6% → 34.8% (+4.2 pts) · students +10%
The biggest campuses' share
Share of campus-based undergraduates at the 50 and the 100 biggest campuses, re-ranked each fall: 34.2% → 39.3% for the 100 biggest.
What the pandemic did, and what came after
Campus-based undergraduates against fall 2019: −5.2% at the low in fall 2022, −3.5% in fall 2024. Then each group's share by fall, and how fast it moved before, during, and after.
- Under 2,000 undergrads
- 2,000–9,999
- 10,000–19,999
- 20,000+
Before (fall 2014 to fall 2019) · pandemic (fall 2019 to fall 2022) · after (fall 2022 to fall 2024). A taller middle bar means the pandemic sped a shift up; a bar that flips sign would mean a reversal. The after period is 2 falls long so far.
- before: 5 falls
- pandemic: 3 falls
- after: 2 falls so far
Under 2,000 undergrads
590 colleges
Students: −4.7% · −7.4% · +0.1%
Back at their fall 2019 size: 34% of colleges
2,000–9,999
599 colleges
Students: −4.1% · −8.5% · +0.5%
Back at their fall 2019 size: 29% of colleges
10,000–19,999
131 colleges
Students: 0.0% · −6.1% · +1.3%
Back at their fall 2019 size: 37% of colleges
20,000+
86 colleges
Students: +7.3% · −1.3% · +3.6%
Back at their fall 2019 size: 63% of colleges
By state
The change in each state's share of campus-based undergraduates, fall 2014 to fall 2024, in points (states with 10+ panel colleges). Gaining the most: Texas (+1.0 pts), California (+1.0 pts), Florida (+0.6 pts); losing the most: Michigan (−0.5 pts), Puerto Rico (−0.4 pts), Pennsylvania (−0.4 pts).
This follows where high-school graduates live: the Sun Belt's classes grew and the Midwest's shrank, and these data can't separate that from a change in where students choose to go. Each state's page shows its own colleges, and where its first-years come from and go to: Texas and Michigan, for example.
Applications spread, enrollment concentrated
Each group's share of all to 1,273 campus-based colleges, at fall 2014, fall 2019, fall 2022, fall 2024: where the applications went, and R1 universities' share peaking in fall 2022.
- Under 2,000 undergrads10.7% · 10.5% · 9.4% · 9.5%
- 2,000–9,99940.5% · 39.5% · 37.9% · 37.9%
- 10,000–19,99922.4% · 21.8% · 22.6% · 22.5%
- 20,000+26.5% · 28.1% · 30.1% · 30.1%
- R1 universities44.7% · 46.8% · 50.7% · 49.8%
- R2 universities14.1% · 14.0% · 13.7% · 14.2%
- Research college or university13.9% · 13.4% · 12.6% · 12.8%
- Other colleges27.2% · 25.9% · 23.0% · 23.2%
- Public56.5% · 57.7% · 58.9% · 60.4%
- Private nonprofit43.5% · 42.3% · 41.1% · 39.6%
Price moved with enrollment
1,285 campus-based colleges, in fifths by the change in their from 2013–14 to 2023–24, and by that price at the start. Each bar is the fifth's change in undergraduates, fall 2014 to fall 2024. Across the decade a college's price change and its enrollment change move together (rank correlation 0.26), but within any one period the link is weak (0.15, 0.08, 0.02 before, during, and after the pandemic): colleges discounted while they shrank, over years, not as a year-to-year response. The price gap study sees the same thing from the price side.
Colleges view: each college counts once in its fifth; bars show the fifth's total change in students.
- −77% to −22%257 colleges−19%
Median college −20% · 17% grew
- −22% to −14%257 colleges−8%
Median college −14% · 25% grew
- −14% to −8%257 colleges−4%
Median college −10% · 33% grew
- −8% to +1%257 colleges+4%
Median college −1% · 49% grew
- +1% to +125%257 colleges+4%
Median college −1% · 49% grew
- $3K–$22K257 colleges−7%
Median college −16% · 27% grew
- $22K–$26K257 colleges−9%
Median college −16% · 26% grew
- $26K–$31K257 colleges−4%
Median college −14% · 28% grew
- $31K–$39K257 colleges+5%
Median college −12% · 36% grew
- $39K–$67K257 colleges+5%
Median college +2% · 56% grew
What the average student paid, after inflation (2023–24 dollars)
Students view: each college weighted by its undergraduates. At publics, $25,734 in 2013–14, $26,081 in 2020–21, and $24,548 in 2023–24; at private nonprofits $39,657, $40,885, and $38,082. Most of the decade's fall came after 2020–21, when inflation outran prices.
What it means
Students concentrated, steadily. The share of campus-based undergraduates at colleges with 20,000 or more students (as of fall 2014) went from 30.6% to 34.8%, up in 9 of 10 falls, and research universities (R1) went from 40.9% to 46.4% while colleges outside the research tiers lost 17% of their students. These overlap: the biggest campuses are mostly research universities in cities (city campuses went from 63% to 65%), so they are one shift seen from several sides, not separate findings.
The pandemic didn't interrupt the concentration. From fall 2019 to fall 2022, colleges that had 20,000+ students changed by −1.3% in students while every other size lost between 6.1% and 8.5%; their share moved +0.44 points a year, about as fast as the +0.45 before it, and R1 universities' +0.73, faster than the +0.52 before. Public colleges' students changed −5.7% in those falls and private nonprofits' −4.8%.
Since fall 2022, the shifts have slowed, so far. The after period is 2 falls long, too short to call a reversal. The campus-based total has regained about 32% of what it lost. The recovery is where the growth was: 63% of 20,000+ campuses and 65% of R1 universities are back at their fall 2019 size, against 28% of colleges outside the research tiers. Some lines flattened: the Midwest's share changed −0.30 points a year before the pandemic and −0.09 since; town campuses' −0.20 and −0.03. That is a slower loss or a flat line, not a recovery. The West's share is changing −0.06 points a year since fall 2022 after +0.16 before, and the most selective colleges' −0.01 after +0.03.
Applications moved differently. R1 universities' share of all applications went 44.7% → 46.8% → 50.7% → 49.8% at fall 2014, fall 2019, fall 2022, fall 2024: it peaked in fall 2022 and has eased since; public colleges' went from 56.5% to 60.4%.
Price moved with enrollment, not against it. The fifth of colleges that cut what students pay the most, after inflation, lost 19% of their students; the fifth that held or raised it did better (+4%), and the priciest fifth at the start grew (+5%). Colleges losing students discounted more; this doesn't say which came first.
Where students went also follows where 18-year-olds live: high-school classes grew in the South and West and shrank in the Midwest, and these data can't separate a change in appetite from a change in population. Breakdowns show where the change happened, not why.
How this was measured
- Which colleges. Colleges with 300 or more undergraduates in both falls, campus-based: not for-profit, not online-first at either end of the window, not a campus that merged or split inside the window: 1,406 colleges in fall 2014 and fall 2024. It's a , so colleges entering or leaving the data don't look like change.
- Groups. Colleges are grouped by . A group needs 30 or more colleges in the panel; smaller ones show .
- Campus-based. 1,537 colleges have 300+ undergraduates in both falls; 67 online-first, 37 for-profit, 27 merged or split are left out, leaving 1,406. means more than half of undergraduates took every course online at either end of the window (fall 2014 or fall 2024; the pandemic falls read the fall before, and a college that reported no share that fall counts as campus-based). Merged or split campuses are the reviewed list the Movers page uses.
- Classified then. Size and selectivity use each college's fall 2014 value, because the question is where students went from the kinds of college that existed then; region, public or private, setting, and research tier use today's classification. Classified by today's size instead, the 20,000+ share reads 30.3% → 35.8%, which overstates the shift by counting colleges that grew past 20,000 as large at both ends.
- Three periods. Before (fall 2014 to fall 2019, the last fall before the pandemic), the pandemic (fall 2019 to fall 2022, the fall with the fewest campus-based undergraduates since, found from the data each release), and after (fall 2022 to fall 2024: 2 falls so far). Pace is the change in a group's share in per year, so periods of different lengths compare.
- Shares by fall use the colleges reporting that fall, and a fall is left out when under 90% of the panel reports. Colleges that closed aren't in a , so the decline at small colleges is understated.
- Applications cover the 1,273 campus-based colleges reporting applicants in every one of fall 2014, fall 2019, fall 2022, fall 2024 (the period boundaries; a fall under 90% coverage would be replaced by the nearest earlier one).
- Money is , in 2023–24 dollars, for 1,285 campus-based colleges reporting it in both 2013–14 and 2023–24. Price years run one behind the falls. Fifths hold equal numbers of colleges.
- The universe. The site's four-year colleges, not all of U.S. higher education. Breakdowns show where a change happened, not why.
Sources:College Scorecard (enrollment), Fall 2014 to Fall 2024;IPEDS Admissions survey, Fall 2014 to Fall 2024;IPEDS Institutional Characteristics survey, 2014–15 to 2023–24;IPEDS Student Financial Aid survey, 2014–15 to 2023–24;IPEDS Fall Enrollment survey (distance education), Fall 2014 to Fall 2024;inflation: BLS CPI-U, school-year averagesAbout the data(built 2026-10-12; CPI retrieved 2026-10-12)